Business Project Management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words

Business Project Management - Essay Example The researcher states that before initializing a project, project manager and team must be sure about the structure of the host firm because it influences their project and the operations they seek to perform. In addition, the culture of an organization is composed of certain attributes such as values, attitudes, viewpoints and behaviors of its staff members. In addition, it demonstrates the established principles and values of the organization, infusing all the activities which a corporation performs. In simple words, it can make a project a success or a failure. However, the perfect organizational culture is that in which projects are well thought-out in strategic management and are executed to promote and support a firm’s corporate strategy and corporate goals. As a result, top management pays more attention to them and assigns more and more organization’s resources to allow them to be successful. Here strategic management is the discipline of building, implementing, and assessing cross-functional decisions that facilitate a corporation to attain its goals. Moreover, each corporation has its own model organizational culture, operating systems and inside and outside resources to attain this. In addition, at the present it is necessary for the project managers to be familiar with the cultural, organizational and social environments adjacent the project. It could be done by recognizing the stakeholders and their capability to have an effect on the project. Thus, it could lead towards the likelihood of influencing project surroundings in an optimistic manner. Therefore, the any kind of risks could be considerably diminished; however failure to adopt such a way could unavoidably lead to a less than acceptable ending. In addition, the successful project managers would be familiar with the importance to put some effort in changing or improving the organizational culture for the benefit of the project stakeholders. In this scenario, it is the responsib ility of every team member of a project, undeniably every employee of the organization, needs to be influenced to express the attitude that, just as they are stakeholders, as well as every other project stakeholder is also vital (Wideman, 2001). Moreover, the organization's culture plays a significant role in success rate of projects. Take into account that this is about projects all throughout a corporation, not just about one specific project. In addition, the culture of a host organization plays possibly the major role in whether their organization is flourishing in running projects. On the other hand, if a supplier firm faces challenges running projects productively with the host firm, they cannot blame the project managers. In fact, they are struggling surrounded by a culture that is not in support of their struggle. Thus, it is essential for the project manager as well as the top management of the supplier firm to identify and assess the culture of the host organization. Until they are

Diseases Affecting the Geriatric Population: Bibliography

Diseases Affecting the Geriatric Population: Bibliography Literature review : Lourdu jafrin , Venkata Naveen Kumar .P, Udaya laxmi .T Jayapriya. B et.al performed a 2 months cross-sectional, Unicentric observational study titled â€Å"drug utilization pattern of geriatric patients in the medical department of tertiary care hospital† and it was published in international journal of pharmacy and life sciences in 2013. This research has shown the chronic nature of diseases affecting the geriatric population most commonly the respiratory diseases and rightly increasing the trend of deriphyllin drug utilization. Vandana A badar, Sanjay Kumar. B navale performed a prospective study for a period of 6 months from may 2010 – dec 2010 titled â€Å"study of prescribing pattern of anti microbial agents in medicine ICU of a teaching hospital in central India† and was published in JAPI , April 2012.the main objective of the study is to evaluate the utilization of anti- microbials. They found that infection was the major reason for the usage of anti – microbial therapy .Author revealed that the drug cefotaxime was most commonly used in MICU by about 32% followed by metronidazole 24% , ampicillin 17- 29%. Study also showed the rationality of drug usage by about 30% which was evaluated by analysing the prescriptions. From this study authors concluded that the medical fraternity needs to understand the importance of antibiotics. An international programme may be a useful initiative to reduce antibiotic use. Prakash katakam , Abdul baset A. Elfituri, Zaidoon H. Ramadoan , Osama g. Abadi performed a cross- sectional retrospective study for a period of 15 months in Libya titled â€Å" A retrospective study on antibiotic use in different clinical departments of a teaching hospital in zawiya , Libya† and it was published in Ibnosina journal of medicine and biomedical sciences in 2012. An interesting observation was that increase in the antibiotic consumption which was expressed as DDD/ 10000 inhabitants / day especially AMOX (Amoxicillin+ Clavulanicacid) had been observed from 2008-2009 when compared to other antibiotics rightly for the indication of respiratory diseases. Study reveals that out of 100 subjects only 6 have undergone microbial culture investigations. From this study authors conclude that before initiation of the treatment, a vital need for microbial investigation is essential. Jeevangi. SR, Patil. RB, Manjunath et al. performed a 15 months prospective cross-sectional study in Gulbarga titled â€Å" drug utilization study in a trauma care unit of a tertiary care hospital â€Å" and it was published in journal of clinical and diagnostic research in 2010. In his study the author used the who drug use indicator i.e.., prescribing indicator which can be known by calculating the average number of drugs per encounter and observed that newer anti- microbial and proton pump inhibitors are prescribed more. The study reveals that poly pharmacy was found to be high and the generic is low. An increase in the number of drugs per prescription in the TCU was gradually increased from the day of admission when compared to previous records. The study concluded that usage of drugs in TCU were in accordance with standard treatment guidelines. Hence the authors reveals that by the results of the study there is a considerable scope for improving the prescribing habits accordin g to rational drug use. Sahar I, Al. Niemat, Diana T.bloukh, Manal D. Al. Harasis et.al performed a retrospective study for a period of 3 months from May 2007- July 2007 in 5 hospital centres in KHMC titled† drug use evaluation of antibiotics prescribed in a Jordanian hospital out- patient and emergency clinics using who prescribing indicators† and it was published in Saudi med J 2008. The authors used the who prescribing indicators for the evaluation of prescriptions taken from the out patients settings. The study reveals that the share of antibiotics was more when compared with the total number of encounters surveyed. Also states that the antibiotic categories rightly penicillins( especially amoxicillin) and quinolones ( especially ciprofloxacil, norfloxacin) were prescribed. He authors conclude that the prescribing pattern of antibiotics was very high . so requirement of continuing medical education programme may be needed. Hillary o. Odo, Sunday o.Olotu , Imafidon o.Agbonile, Peter o.esan , Bawa o. James performed a retrospective descriptive study from a review of out- patient prescriptions between sept 2007and Aug 2012 in a regional psychiatric hospital, Nigeria† and it was published in Archives of pharmacy practice in 2013. DDD/ 1000 inhabitants/day was calculated to evaluate the pattern of drug utilization. The results of the study showed that the drug Halopridol accounted the highest drug utilization with a DDD /100inhabitants / day of 5 followed by amitriptylline, benhexol , trifluperazine. The authors concluded that the prescribing pattern of antibiotics were not in accordance with the who guidelines and observation of polypharmacy either haloperidol accounts more often. Praveen KG, Arun K performed a prospective study for a period of 6 months in a tertiary care hospital titled â€Å" drug utilization and evaluation of HMG- co A reductase inhibitors in tertiary care hospital â€Å" and it was published in Indian journal of pharmacy practice in 2013. The study used the methodology of DDD/12 bed days to evaluate the drug utilization of statins. Present study shown that statins are more prescribed for various indications like primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, dyslipidemia and hypertriglyceridemia. The authors from the study concluded that dosage units for atorvastatin were nearer to the who recommended dose where as variation is observed in case of simvastatin and rosuvastatin. Sutharson L, Hariharan R.S, Vamsadhara C performed a 4 months prospective cross- sectional study in a tertiary hospital , Chennai titled â€Å" drug utilization study in a diabetalogy out –patient setting of a tertiary hospital† and it was published in Indian journal of pharmacology in 2003. Who drug use indicators and DDD were used in the methodology to evaluate the drug utilization. The study reveals that more utilization of sulfonyl ureas was observed when compared to biguanides. The authors concluded that the total number of drugs prescribed in generic is high and incidence of polypharmacy is low. Hence some of the interventional measures may be vital in promoting the patient education and knowledge . James M Hutchinson, David M Patrick , Fawziah Marra et al . presented a paper titled â€Å" measurement of antibiotic consumption: A Practical guide to the use of the ATC and DDD system methodology in Canada â€Å" and it was published in Can J Infect Dis in 2004. The presented paper provides a practical advice on the use of ATC and DDD classification system for evaluating the prescribing pattern of antibiotics. The authors concluded that initiation of drug utilization documentation procedure may stimulate interest in measurement and display of antibiotic consumption. Hamdi Sozen, Ibak gonen, Ayse Sozen et al. Performed a point prevalence study on july 19 , 2011 in a general hospital , turkey titled â€Å" Application of ATC and DDD methodology to evaluate antibiotic use in a general hospital in turkey â€Å" and it was published in Annals of clinical microbiology and anti microbials in 2013. The results of the study showed that the rational use of antibiotics were identified with appropriate indication for prophylaxis and treatment. The authors concluded that the hospitals should implement their own principles of antibiotic use to decrease the microbial resistance and economic consequences too. Mahendra K Patel , Manish J Barvaliya , Tejas K patel , CB Tripathi performed a retrospective study between 2008 and dec2010 in takhtsinhji general hospital , Bhavnagar, Gujarat, India titled â€Å" drug utilization pattern in critical care unit in a tertiary care teaching hospital in india† and it was published in International Journal of critical illness and injury science in 2013. The case papers were analyzed for demographic variables, indications, duration of critical care unit stay and usage of anti – microbials were evaluated based on culture report. In the study DDD/100 bed days were calculated to evaluate the drug utilization and also cost of the drugs from Indian drug review (2010). The study results showed DDD/100 bed days was more in case of total drug utilization in the anti- microbials which were prescribed without culture report , more economic burden is seen in expired patients and incidence of polypharmacy is a major problem in ccu. Shankar PR, upadhyay DK, Subish P, Bhandari RB, Das B performed an observational study from a period of June2005-May 2006 in a teaching hospital in western Nepal titled â€Å" Drug utilization among older patients in a teaching hospital in western hospital† and it was published in Singapore Med J in 2010. The author uses the drug use indicator DDD/ 100 bed days. For the evaluation of drug use in the hospital. In the present study basic demographic information of older patients , microbial report, drug utilization pattern and cost of the drugs were included. The study reveals that average number of drugs consumed by each patient was tends to be high i.e.., (7.73). The authors concluded that incidence of parenteral formulations arises a common problem. Authors also suggested that there must be an initiation of guidelines for the usage of drugs in elderly patients. Khavane.K, Addepalli.V, Bhusare.K,Payghan S.A, Patweakar.S,Kate.V performed a 6 months prospective study at the saifee hospital , charni road , Mumbai titled â€Å" prescribing patterns of antibiotics and sensitivity patterns of micro –organisms towards different antibiotics in multi disciplinary health care hospital â€Å" and it was published in International Journal of pharmaceutical and biological archives in 2010. The study was carried over by collecting the patient demographic details, antibiotic information, microbial culture sensitivity test .The present study showed the process of interpretation of results. The authors concluded that there must be requirement of formulation of a policy for antibiotic use, obtaining the culture and sensitivity reports must be quickened, avoidance of continued or over usage of antibiotic for a longer period of time. Patil P.H, Kuchake V.G, KumarAjay, Dighore Pitambar,Surana S.J performed a 5 months prospective study in inpatient department of tertiary care hospital titled â€Å" evaluation of drug utilization especially anti- microbial agents in inpatient department of tertiary care hospital â€Å" and it was published in International Journal of community pharmacy in 2009.In the present study patient demographic information, antibiotic consumption for empirical and surgical prophylaxis , microbial culture reports were included and the data were analyzed in a simple percentage manner. Based on the results authors concluded that more number of prescriptions containing antibiotics were observed and there are no gold standard methods for the usage of antibiotics. Authors also suggested that an antibiotic order form must be prepared and implemented for achieving the rational use of drug . Ulla-Maija Rautakorpi, Soija Huikko, Pekka Honkanen et.al.. performed a 5 year follow up study titled â€Å" The anti- microbial treatment strategies (MIKSTRA) program: A 5yr follow up of infection – specific antibiotic use in primary health care and the effect of implantation of treatment guidelines †and it published in clinical infectious diseases in 2006. In the present study data were collected from various health care centres and the national guidelines were published during the study period. Initiation of interventional programmes were done by the local trainers. Based on the results concluded that because of multifaceted intervention, a qualitative improvement in the drug use is observed.

Snakes And Ladders :: essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Snakes and Ladders by Gita Mehta is a book that celebrates India and its history. The author provides many short stories that try to show how India is trying to develop as a nation. She tells about the complex religious system, as well as cultural diversity, and the corruption of India’s government. She shows the reader many aspects of the experience of living in India, which Mehta clearly shows that she loves, but she attempts to remain neutral about the issues that she discusses.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  When the Indian nationalists were revolting against the British Empire, it changed the way of life in India. It let women have a more active role in everyday activities. Mehta’s father played a very active role in the revolutions; he used his house as a place for Indian nationalists to hide out for this he was placed in jail for several years. Her uncle was sentenced to seventeen years in a torture camp for different charges. Yet when asked what their worst memory of being under British rule was, they simply provided a simple story with not much significance. Now instead of being under British rule, the India people are under the rule of leaders that view themselves as being the person who drove the British out of India. One thing remains the same though, the people of India view their land as being their own, and that is what is important to them.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  One of the major problems facing India is poverty among its people. India is one of the ten most industrialized countries in the world, they graduate around five million people from college each year, and they even have a space program more advanced than most European countries. Yet the people of India are still starving, they do not produce enough jobs for all of the college graduates, and despite the fact that they can travel into space, India has underdeveloped irrigation, and electrical grids.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  On the outskirts of Delhi, the author found people rummaging through garbage dumps. At first she thought that they were just homeless bums, but when she went into the dumps herself she found out that the people had been of a higher class, but tragedy landed them here. The people in the dumps were women and children searching though the dumps for scraps of iron, glass, or cloth. They would then sell these items to a contractor for money.

Discuss one explanation of Personality Development and evaluate its conclusion

For this assignment I am going to discuss Freud's perspective of personality development. Freud used psychoanalytic theories that are based around the emotional development of the personality, whereas Erikson's psychosocial theory focuses more on the role of social factors in development. Personality development can be broken down into three strands within Freud's theory: the personality structure, defence mechanisms and psychosexual development. Personality can be defined as ‘ the distinctive and characteristic patterns of thought, emotion, and behaviour that define an individual's personal style, and influence his or her interactions with the environment'. (Atkinson et al, 1992) Freud developed his theories by psychoanalysing adults, mostly middle-aged women and individuals with personality problems. He used various methods to study his patients, such as, dream analysis; which are interpretations of individual's dreams as they are a â€Å"window on the unconscious† (Davenport, 1988), free association; where the person is given a word or a phrase and encouraged to say the first thing that enters their head and ‘slips of the tongue'; which is when a person says something in error but these can subconsciously reflect what they really mean. Freud suggests that adult personality is derived from the interaction between the desires for pleasure and how early desires were gratified. He believed that all human behaviour is controlled by drives, which he relates to human instincts. Freud insisted that there are two forces feeding our instinctual urges with energy; the Libido and the Death Instinct; the Libido being a sexual energy and the Death Instinct being more of an aggressive energy. According to Freud, the adult human mind is made up of three different parts and levels of awareness; the unconscious mind, which he named the ‘Id'; the preconscious mind, which he named the ‘Superego', and the conscious mind, which he named the ‘Ego'. The Id is at the centre of a person's very being. It is the initial part of a human's personality structure, which exists, right from birth and can be described as the most primitive instinct. This part of the personality craves satisfaction and pleasure; therefore it has been coined ‘the pleasure principle'. The Ego is known as the second part of the personality structure. This is the part of our personality that keeps us in touch with reality. Its aim is to protect us and it helps us to perform tasks safely; therefore-coined ‘the reality principle'. The Ego controls both other parts of the personality, the Id and the Superego, which help keep our lives in balance. The last part of the personality structure is the Superego. This is the part that moulds our morals and conscience. It helps prevent us from doing things, which we have learnt and know to be morally wrong; therefore this part has been coined ‘the morality principle'. The ego ideal exists as part of the superego. Rather than telling us what we should not do, the ego ideal tells us what is good and what we should do and be like. If the person has a strong superego they are more likely to have stronger morals than a person with a weak superego. Because the Id and the Superego are always conflicting against one another, the Ego needs to have strategies to reduce anxiety. This helps push problems away and in a way pretending the problems don't exist, a form of denial, these are known as defence mechanisms. Another defence mechanism is repression; this is where the Id's impulses are blocked from reaching the conscious mind. There are a number of other defence mechanisms, including projection; where unacceptable desires or characteristics are projected on to someone else, and displacement; this refers to the transfer of repressed desires or impulses onto a substitute person or object. (Mike Cardwell, 2000) Freud's contributions with his theories on defence mechanisms are still being practiced today and are experienced as valid and useful. According to Freud we acquire our personalities in several stages, known as psychosexual development. Freud thought that different parts of our bodies become particularly sensitive as we grow through these different stages; he called these areas erogenous zones. (Davenport, 1988) As children grow up and are experiencing the stages of psychosexual development, different parts of their bodies become more sensitive, first the mouth, then the anus, then the phallus, and finally the genitals. The libido seeks pleasure through these erogenous zones. The five different stages of psychosexual development are labelled as: The Oral Stage – this is the first year of a baby's life where the baby gains pleasure from sucking and biting. The Id exists here right from birth. The Anal Stage – this is around the age of one to about three years where the pleasure derives from retaining and expelling faeces. At this stage the Ego begins to develop. The Phallic Stage – this is around three until six years where the sensitivity is placed around the genitals. This is the where the Oedipal Complex or the Electra Complex unfolds. It is during this stage the Superego starts to develop. The Latency Period – this is around seven until twelve years where the body seems to have no sensitised area. A child will be more interested in interacting with other people but are not strongly attracted to others. The Genital Stage – this is around the age of 14 to 17 years. The child becomes more aware of the opposite gender and a sexual awareness is developed. The Oedipal Conflict that occurs in the Phallic Stage involves the child experiencing feelings of desire for the opposite-sex parent. The child experiences a fear that the same sex parent will find out and punish them for this, resulting in feelings of envy and the development of ‘castration anxiety'. Whilst all this is happening to the child subconsciously, they start to become more like the same sex parent adopting their characteristics to conquer the Oedipal Conflict, (known as the ‘Electra Complex' in girls). This is known as ‘Identification'. His ideas on psychosexual development are known to be quite controversial, as they seem to be overly obsessed with sexuality. Freud developed the theory that sex was a major motivational force at a time of great sexual repression. This could have caused sex to be something that was repressed in many minds (Beryard & Hayes, 1994). Freud alleges emotional disturbances that occur in adult life could be to do with poor psychosexual development. He believes that a person could be fixated at an early pleasure seeking stage of the development. This is caused if the child experiences severe problems or excessive gratification at any of the stages. The adult may display regression whereby their behaviour could become less mature and similar to behaviour displayed at the stage, which they are fixated. Freud places great importance on the roles of regression and fixation in determining personality. Freud's theories have not been without criticism, they have mostly been criticised for being unscientific. His research support seems to be rather weak as the case studies he carried out mainly consisted of adults, mostly middle-aged women, from the same culture, so the results may be biased. The only child Freud studied was Little Hans, a five-year-old boy, who suffered from a phobia. Freud's ‘evidence' for his explanation of how children's personalities grow does not come from experiments or any scientifically acceptable means of data collection. It doesn't even come from observing ‘normal' children. It comes from the dreams and spoken memory of a relatively small number of people who mostly lived in Vienna, who had some personality ‘problems'. (Davenport, 1988) Another method Freud used to analysis people was hypnosis. This was another widely criticised method, as even Freud admitted himself can be suggestive. However, despite many criticisms Freud remains known for having the most influential impact in modern psychology, especially in the areas of abnormal behaviour and psychotherapy. Today his ideas are used in everything from childcare, education, literary criticism, and psychiatry. He founded the psychoanalytic movement, which today many Neo-Freudians still actively use, although the emphasis of it is different.

Dra Fast Ferment

__________________________________________ MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS – 2011/2012 FINAL EXAM __________________________________________ The examination will last for TWO (2) hours. The exam is open book. You are allowed to use the course pack, class handouts and any other materials that relate to the course. You are not allowed to access the internet, or e-mail. The examination paper consists of 10 questions: You should answer ALL of the questions. Make explicit any assumptions underlying your answers, interpret your esults and justify your answers, conclusions and recommendations. But keep your answers short and to the point. In grading, importance will be attached to the clarity and conciseness of your answers. Good luck! DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM FastFerment FastFerment is a start-up venture started by UCL scientists and engineers. The firm has discovered an enzyme which accelerates the evolution of the mold Aspergillus Orgza e, which is used for making traditional rice-based alcoholic drinks (rice wines) in East Asia such as Sake or Makgeolli.W hen this powder is included in the production of the rice wines, the production lead time is shortened from 10 days to 3 days without affecting the taste or quality of the wine, as it accelerates the fermentation of the rice. Thus, the powder can substantially increase the production capacity for the rice-wine manufacturers and provide them with a competitive advantage. Recently, FastFerment has perfected the technology of genetically engineering and mass producing this accelerating enzyme and storing it in a powder form.They are currently formulating strategies to commercialize the powder by selling the powder to manufacturers. Currently, they estimate there are 156 rice wine manufacturers, but this could be as less as 140, as existing firms may no longer be active, and as many as 190, as there are recent new entrants to the market as the rice wines have become popular in recent years. Because the powder is new, they expect only a few early adopters would be interested in the product. The y expect between 5~10% of the firms to be their potential buyers, with no specific percentage being greater than the other.The price they would charge for 1 kg of the powder would depend on the cost of manufacturing the powder as well as the value it delivers to each manufacturer. After conducting initial market research, they expect an average manufacturer to be willing to pay as high as ? 950/kg, but as low as ? 400/kg depending on the initial negotiations. They expect the selling price to be ? 550/kg. Moreover, it is uncertain how much quantity each manufacturer would want to buy, which will depend on their current production capacity, but they are estimating anywhere between 100kg to 400kg per firm.The founders agree that they would need to hire professional sales people with the necessary knowledge of the science of the powder to help them sell to ea ch manufacturer. They do not know how many will join, but they have made an offer to 6, and expect between 4 and 6 to join FastFerment, with each number being equally likely. The annual wage will be given in terms of salary (no commission), and it is expected to be ? 50,000, but it is negotiable between ? 45,000 and ? 75,000 depending on their qualifications and experience. FastFerment is also examining the cost associated with production.While they have perfected the technology to manufacture the powder, they currently do not have the manufacturing plant set up to accommodate the potential demand. Initial estimates show that the fixed cost associated with setting up a manufacturing plant is at least ? 300,000 and at most ? 600,000, with ? 500,000 being the most likely. The variable cost for producing 1kg of the powder is expected to be ? 200/kg, but this is also variable by 10% in either direction. Lowest Rice wine manufacturers 140 adopters (%) 5. 0% price/kg 400 Quantity of purch ase (kg) 100 salesforce 4 Salary (? ) 45,000 Fixed cost of production (? 300,000 Variable cost per 1kg (? ) 180 –TABLE 1– Likely 156 -550 –50,000 500,000 200 MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 highest 190 10. 0% 950 400 6 75,000 600,000 220 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM The objective of FastFerment is to maximize the annual profit, but it is unclear whether the firm would be profitable based on the numbers. Question 1. Scenario Analysis Start @Risk for Excel and open the Excel spreadsheet â€Å"FastFerment. † Perform a scenario analysis for this venture, and determine the best-case and worst-case scenarios (do not use @Risk for this, just plug the numbers in the model and observe the results).What are your conclusions? The scenario analysis below shows that there is significant uncertainty in the profitability of this venture. The worst-case scenario shows a loss of ? 924,000, whereas the best-case scenario shows a potential profit of ? 5,372, 000. So there is a substantial downside, but also a huge upside. AT this point, therefore, it is not recommended to make any decision, as it is yet unclear how the risks will affect th profitability of this venture. Rice wine manufacturers early adopters (%) price/kg Quantity of purchase (kg) salesforce Salary (? ) Fixed cost of production (? )Variable cost per 1kg (? ) Annual profit (? ) Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario 140 190 5. 0% 10. 0% 400 950 100 400 6 4 75,000 45,000 600,000 300,000 220 180 -924,000 5,372,000 Question 2. Sensitivity Analysis Which is the biggest risk, (a) the variable cost/kg (b) the price/kg or (c) the % of early adopters? How did you determine this? Again, do not yet use @Risk. Setting as the base case 7. 5% for %-adopters, 250 to quantity of purchase, 5 as the number of salesforce, and the rest of the parameters to the most likely case, and we examine the potential impact of these three parameters.The price/kg is the biggest risk, with a potential i mpact of ? 1,608,750 when varied from 400 to 950 (-? 165,000 versus ? 1,443,750). The %-early adopters is the second biggest risk with a potential impact of ? 682,500 when varied from 5% to 10% (-? 67,500 versus ? 615,000). The variable cost/kg is the lowest risk with a potential impact of ? 117,000 when varied from 180 to 220 (? 215,250 versus ? 332,250). MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM Question 3. Simulation Analysis – DistributionsTo perform a simulation analysis, we need to identify an appropriate distribution to model each of the risk factors. Determine an appropriate distribution and their parameters for each of the risk factors. Triangular distributions (with the lowest, likely and highest estimates as parameters) would work well for all risks except % of early adopters and quantity of purchase, which should be uniform (with the lowest and highest estimates as the parameters), and salesforce, which should be discrete with eq ual probability of 0. 33 to each three cases {4,5,6}.Question 4. Simulation Analysis – Average Using @Risk, perform a simulation analysis, and determine the average profit for this venture. How high and low could the profit potentially be? Compare these results with the scenario analysis results. After performing 5000 iterations, the average profit is approximately ? 570,000. This means that if we were to run this business for many years, we would have an average annual profit of around ? 570,000 per year (provided the conditions do no change over time). MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAMQuestion 5. Simulation Analysis – VaR What is the likelihood that the profit is positive? What is the probability that the profit is ? 1. 5M or more? W hat is the Value-at-Risk (VaR)? There is about 80% chance of making a profit, and about 10% chance of making a profit that is ? 1. 5M or more. The VaR at 5% is around -? 300,000. Question 6. Sim ulation Analysis – Tornado Diagram Examine the tornado diagram. What can you conclude? Suppose that increasing the number of sales people and their salaries increase the quantity of powder that each manufacturer buys.Would this be a good investment? The tornado diagram shows that the quantity of purchase and the price/kg are the biggest risk factors. The risks related to the cost of production of the powder or the number of salesforce and salary are actually not that significant. Increasing the salesforce and the salary in return for increase in the quantity of purchase therefore seems to be a good investment. MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM Five Grains is one of the leading manufacturers of rice wines.The CEO of Five Grains, a UCL alumnus, has learned about FastFerment’s powder through his personal networks, and immediately recognized the potential opportunity the powder can represent. According to Five Grains’ recen t internal consumer trend study, the demand for various specialty rice wines (using different variety of rice), which is currently negligible due to nonproduction, is expected to rise in the next several years. In particular, for the current year, they conjecture that with 50% the demand will be large (translating into a potential profit of ? 4. 5M), and with 50% it will be small (translating into a potential profit of ? . 5M). Although other firms are looking into producing the specialty rice wines, it is difficult for them to quickly do so as it requires building additional capacity, as most firms do not want to produce the specialty rice wines at the expense of sacrificing the traditional rice wine production. However, with access to the powder, firms can immediately free up their production capacity to mass produce the specialty rice-wines and capture its potential demand. Five Grains also recognized that the competitors also eventually receive information and gain access to the FastFerment’s powder.If this happens, Five Grains will have to share the demand with its competitors. Based on intuition, the CEO believes that there is 70% chance that more than 1 competing manufacturers will eventually adopt the powder and dive into the specialty rice-wine market. In such case, Five Grains will only capture 20% of the demand and hence earn 20% of the potential profit. On the other hand, there is a 20% chance that one competitor adopts the powder, in which case they will be able to capture 50% of the demand and hence earn 50% of the potential profit.He believes that there is only 10% chance that nobody else will MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM enter the market during the year, in which case they can capture 80% of the demand and 80% of the potential profit. To maximize their knowledge of the powder, Five Grains is currently negotiating a deal with FastFerment to ask for a 1-year exclusivity agreement. If the deal can be made, then Five Grains will be the only manufacturer with the access to the powder and be certain to capture 80% of demand (80% of profit). Question 7.Decision Analysis – What to do? The meeting takes place and FastFerment asks Five Grains for ? 1. 5M for the 1-year exclusivity deal. Using a decision tree, find out whether or not Five Grains should agree to buy the 1-year exclusivity deal at ? 1. 5M. I would recommend Five Grains to not buy the one year exclusivity deal for ? 1. 5M, as the expected profit associated with not buying the deal (? 0. 8M) is greater than that with the deal (? 0. 5M). MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM Question 8. Decision Analysis – Value?What is the maximum amount that Five Grains should pay for the 1-year exclusivity deal? The maximum amount that Five Grains should pay for the deal is ? 1. 2M, as it is the price when the expected profits are the same when buying and not buying. Question 9. Decision Analysis – Risk/Sensitivity Examine the risk profile for Five Grains with and without the 1-year exclusivity deal at ? 1. 5M. If the demand turns out to be large, what is the (expected) profit with and without the 1 -year exclusivity deal? What if the demand turns out to be small?How does the value of 1-year exclusivity deal change with respect to the probability that the demand is large? If the demand turns out to be large, then with the 1-year exclusivity deal, Five Grains will earn ? 2. 1M, whereas without it they will earn ? 1. 44M on average with the risk of earning less than ? 1M. However, if the demand turns out to be small, then Five Grains will lose ? 1. 1M, whereas without it they will earn ? 0. 16M. Thus, while there is higher upside with the 1-year exclusivity deal, it also represents a greater downside risk. MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAMWhen the probability that the demand is high increases by 1%, there is a ? 12,800 increase in the expected profit. MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM Question 10. Decision Analysis – A year later The deal for the 1-year exclusivity had been signed for ? 1M, and the demand for the specialty rice wines had turned out to be high. After a new study, Five Grains now projects that the demand for the variety wine will be large with probability 90% (translating into a potential profit of ? 9M), and small with probability 10% (translating into a profit of ? 1M).Moreover, the CEO feels that there is a 95% chance that more than one competitor will adopt the powder, which would allow them to earn 20% of the potential profit, and there is a 5% chance that only 1 firm will adopt , which would allow them to earn 50% of the potential profit. He believes that there is 0% that no firm adopts the powder this year, unless Five Grain brokers a 1-year exclusivity deal again with FastFerment, in which case they will earn 80% o f the potential profit. (i) W hat is the value of 1-year exclusivity for this year for Five Grains? Call this VFG. Five Grains contacts FastFerment and offers to pay (0. * VFG) for a 1-year exclusivity deal, citing the fact that it represents a steep increase from the ? 1M paid in the previous year. (ii) From FastFerment’s point of view, they believe that the adoption rate of the powder has now increased and expects between 50~60% of the manufacturers to become their potential buyers. Taking the rest of the parameters from the previous year as a conservative estimate of the current year (change all the parameters in Table 1, except the % -adopters), what is the minimum amount that FastFerment should demand from Five Grains this year for the 1-year exclusivity deal?Run the simulation analysis using @Risk and find the expected profit with the high adoption rate. W ill the deal go through? From the Decision Tree, we find that the value is approximately ? 4. 8M. MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014 DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: EXAM We find that with the adoption rate between 50~60%, the expected profit is around ? 8. 9M, and there is 10% chance that FastFerment will make ? 15M or more. The deal won’t go through this time as the 1-year exclusivity deal would need to be prohibitively expensive for Five Grains. MSING014 – MSING014B – MSINM014